So far, tariff collections fall well short of what such a program would require. Total revenue sits under $200 billion, a fraction of what would be needed to sustain broad payments to households. And much of that money is now tied up in ongoing legal battles. The Supreme Court recently signaled deep skepticism toward Trump’s previous reliance on emergency powers to impose tariffs, raising the possibility that a ruling could undercut the entire foundation of his dividend idea. In the worst-case scenario, the government might be ordered to issue refunds to importers, not checks to families. Continue reading…